Consensus Gauge

per-currency view of consensus + positioning · gossip page for Tier-3 chatter detail · 🔒 private polls · click any currency for headlines
Data last refreshed: 41 min ago (fresh)

Per-currency

overall consensus + 6 sub-channels per currency · sorted bullish → bearish
JPY→ STRONGLY BULLISH+0.50steady Δ24h +0.00n=102 active · CFTC week ending 2026-05-05 · click → drill-down
━━━━━ News flow ━━━━━
📰 Newsn=38+0.51STRONGLY BULLISHΔ24h +0.01→ steady
🏦 Researchn=64+0.43STRONGLY BULLISHΔ24h -0.00→ steady
💬 Rumoursn=5+0.32STRONGLY BULLISHΔ24h -0.02→ steady
━━━━━ CME positioning ━━━━━
📊 AM (real money) -3.0%z52 -1.08FLAT Δwow +4.2pp↗ turning long
⚡ LM (active) -15.0%z52 +0.51SHORT (mid-range)Δwow +5.4pp↓ fading short
━━━━━ Prediction markets ━━━━━
📈 Polymarket — no contracts mention this currency
📈 PM movers — no contracts moving in last 36h
NOK→ STRONGLY BULLISH+0.45steady Δ24h -0.01n=52 active · click → drill-down
━━━━━ News flow ━━━━━
📰 Newsn=40+0.41STRONGLY BULLISHΔ24h -0.02→ steady
🏦 Researchn=12+0.35STRONGLY BULLISHΔ24h -0.01→ steady
💬 Rumoursn=2+0.25MODERATELY BULLISHΔ24h -0.02→ steady
━━━━━ CME positioning ━━━━━
📊 AM (real money) — no CFTC contract for this currency
⚡ LM (active) — no CFTC contract for this currency
━━━━━ Prediction markets ━━━━━
📈 Polymarket66 contractsextremity 40%Δ24h n/a
📈 PM movers — no contracts moving in last 36h
USD→ STRONGLY BULLISH+0.44steady Δ24h +0.02n=316 active · click → drill-down
━━━━━ News flow ━━━━━
📰 Newsn=59+0.47STRONGLY BULLISHΔ24h +0.10▲ building
🏦 Researchn=257+0.42STRONGLY BULLISHΔ24h -0.00→ steady
💬 Rumours — no data yet
━━━━━ CME positioning ━━━━━
📊 AM (real money) — no CFTC contract for this currency
⚡ LM (active) — no CFTC contract for this currency
━━━━━ Prediction markets ━━━━━
📈 Polymarket4187 contractsextremity 25%Δ24h -1.3pp
📈 PM movers (24h)
P 68% → 14% -54.0ppflipping noWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lif
P 84% → 70% -14.5ppfading highUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
P 18% → 6% -13.0ppdeepening lowUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
P 38% → 28% -9.0ppdeepening lowUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
GBP→ STRONGLY BULLISH+0.33steady Δ24h -0.00n=75 active · CFTC week ending 2026-05-05 · click → drill-down
━━━━━ News flow ━━━━━
📰 Newsn=18+0.03NEUTRALΔ24h -0.06↘ turning bearish
🏦 Researchn=57+0.40STRONGLY BULLISHΔ24h -0.00→ steady
💬 Rumoursn=6+0.04NEUTRALΔ24h +0.19↗ turning bullish
━━━━━ CME positioning ━━━━━
📊 AM (real money) -37.2%z52 -0.00SHORT (mid-range)Δwow -1.7pp↑ building short
⚡ LM (active) +9.5%z52 -0.46LONG (mid-range)Δwow -1.5pp↓ fading long
━━━━━ Prediction markets ━━━━━
📈 Polymarket — no contracts mention this currency
📈 PM movers — no contracts moving in last 36h
PLN△ STRONGLY BULLISH+0.31fading Δ24h -0.05n=45 active · click → drill-down
━━━━━ News flow ━━━━━
📰 Newsn=44+0.33STRONGLY BULLISHΔ24h -0.05△ fading
🏦 Researchn=1-0.07SLIGHTLY BEARISHΔ24h +0.01→ steady
💬 Rumoursn=4+0.23MODERATELY BULLISHΔ24h +0.04▲ building
━━━━━ CME positioning ━━━━━
📊 AM (real money) — no CFTC contract for this currency
⚡ LM (active) — no CFTC contract for this currency
━━━━━ Prediction markets ━━━━━
📈 Polymarket — no contracts mention this currency
📈 PM movers — no contracts moving in last 36h
CHF→ STRONGLY BULLISH+0.31steady Δ24h +0.00n=49 active · CFTC week ending 2026-05-05 · click → drill-down
━━━━━ News flow ━━━━━
📰 Newsn=33+0.44STRONGLY BULLISHΔ24h -0.00→ steady
🏦 Researchn=16+0.01NEUTRALΔ24h -0.00→ steady
💬 Rumoursn=15+0.55STRONGLY BULLISHΔ24h +0.13▲ building
━━━━━ CME positioning ━━━━━
📊 AM (real money) -39.8%z52 +1.90🔥 SHORT (unwinding)Δwow +0.1pp→ steady
⚡ LM (active) -7.0%z52 -1.80🔥 SHORT (fresh)Δwow -1.6pp↑ building short
━━━━━ Prediction markets ━━━━━
📈 Polymarket — no contracts mention this currency
📈 PM movers — no contracts moving in last 36h
EUR→ MODERATELY BULLISH+0.25steady Δ24h +0.03n=153 active · CFTC week ending 2026-05-05 · click → drill-down
━━━━━ News flow ━━━━━
📰 Newsn=44+0.16MODERATELY BULLISHΔ24h +0.10▲ building
🏦 Researchn=109+0.26MODERATELY BULLISHΔ24h -0.00→ steady
💬 Rumoursn=1-0.16MODERATELY BEARISHΔ24h +0.06▽ fading
━━━━━ CME positioning ━━━━━
📊 AM (real money) +35.0%z52 -1.24LONG (unwinding)Δwow -1.2pp↓ fading long
⚡ LM (active) +1.5%z52 -0.60FLAT Δwow +0.0pp→ steady
━━━━━ Prediction markets ━━━━━
📈 Polymarket259 contractsextremity 43%Δ24h +0.8pp
📈 PM movers — no significant moves in last 36h
CAD△ MODERATELY BULLISH+0.25fading Δ24h -0.03n=86 active · CFTC week ending 2026-05-05 · click → drill-down
━━━━━ News flow ━━━━━
📰 Newsn=55+0.03NEUTRALΔ24h -0.04↘ turning bearish
🏦 Researchn=31+0.59STRONGLY BULLISHΔ24h -0.01→ steady
💬 Rumours — no data yet
━━━━━ CME positioning ━━━━━
📊 AM (real money) +12.2%z52 +0.36LONG (mid-range)Δwow +5.8pp↑ building long
⚡ LM (active) -19.5%z52 +0.62SHORT (mid-range)Δwow +1.8pp↓ fading short
━━━━━ Prediction markets ━━━━━
📈 Polymarket198 contractsextremity 31%Δ24h +0.2pp
📈 PM movers (24h)
K 21% → 23% +2.0ppoff the floorWill Alberta vote to secede from Canada before the next general election?
SEK→ MODERATELY BULLISH+0.24steady Δ24h +0.02n=51 active · click → drill-down
━━━━━ News flow ━━━━━
📰 Newsn=50+0.24MODERATELY BULLISHΔ24h +0.02→ steady
🏦 Researchn=1+0.07SLIGHTLY BULLISHΔ24h -0.01→ steady
💬 Rumoursn=1+0.13SLIGHTLY BULLISHΔ24h -0.01→ steady
━━━━━ CME positioning ━━━━━
📊 AM (real money) — no CFTC contract for this currency
⚡ LM (active) — no CFTC contract for this currency
━━━━━ Prediction markets ━━━━━
📈 Polymarket — no contracts mention this currency
📈 PM movers — no contracts moving in last 36h
NZD▲ MODERATELY BULLISH+0.22building Δ24h +0.06n=75 active · CFTC week ending 2026-05-05 · click → drill-down
━━━━━ News flow ━━━━━
📰 Newsn=44+0.02NEUTRALΔ24h +0.11↗ turning bullish
🏦 Researchn=31+0.38STRONGLY BULLISHΔ24h -0.01→ steady
💬 Rumoursn=2-0.06SLIGHTLY BEARISHΔ24h +0.05↗ turning bullish
━━━━━ CME positioning ━━━━━
📊 AM (real money) -50.4%z52 -1.13SHORT (fresh)Δwow -0.4pp→ steady
⚡ LM (active) -22.6%z52 -1.30SHORT (fresh)Δwow -2.5pp↑ building short
━━━━━ Prediction markets ━━━━━
📈 Polymarket — no contracts mention this currency
📈 PM movers — no contracts moving in last 36h
ZAR↗ NEUTRAL-0.02turning bullish Δ24h +0.09n=60 active · CFTC week ending 2026-05-05 · click → drill-down
━━━━━ News flow ━━━━━
📰 Newsn=49+0.06SLIGHTLY BULLISHΔ24h +0.13↗ turning bullish
🏦 Researchn=11-0.18MODERATELY BEARISHΔ24h +0.01→ steady
💬 Rumoursn=8-0.22MODERATELY BEARISHΔ24h +0.01→ steady
━━━━━ CME positioning ━━━━━
📊 AM (real money) +34.5%z52 +0.71LONG (mid-range)Δwow -6.4pp↓ fading long
⚡ LM (active) +18.2%z52 +0.94LONG (mid-range)Δwow +0.7pp→ steady
━━━━━ Prediction markets ━━━━━
📈 Polymarket107 contractsextremity 21%Δ24h -4.0pp
📈 PM movers (24h)
P 16% → 8% -7.0ppdeepening lowWill Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
AUD↗ SLIGHTLY BEARISH-0.08turning bullish Δ24h +0.07n=126 active · CFTC week ending 2026-05-05 · click → drill-down
━━━━━ News flow ━━━━━
📰 Newsn=83-0.26MODERATELY BEARISHΔ24h +0.09▽ fading
🏦 Researchn=43+0.21MODERATELY BULLISHΔ24h -0.00→ steady
💬 Rumoursn=4+0.18MODERATELY BULLISHΔ24h -0.01→ steady
━━━━━ CME positioning ━━━━━
📊 AM (real money) +16.1%z52 +1.77🔥 LONG (fresh)Δwow -0.1pp→ steady
⚡ LM (active) +20.3%z52 +1.26LONG (fresh)Δwow +3.1pp↑ building long
━━━━━ Prediction markets ━━━━━
📈 Polymarket11 contractsextremity 14%Δ24h n/a
📈 PM movers — no contracts moving in last 36h
MXN→ MODERATELY BEARISH-0.17steady Δ24h +0.00n=66 active · CFTC week ending 2026-05-05 · click → drill-down
━━━━━ News flow ━━━━━
📰 Newsn=61-0.29MODERATELY BEARISHΔ24h -0.01→ steady
🏦 Researchn=5+0.41STRONGLY BULLISHΔ24h -0.02→ steady
💬 Rumoursn=4-0.19MODERATELY BEARISHΔ24h +0.05▽ fading
━━━━━ CME positioning ━━━━━
📊 AM (real money) +17.7%z52 -1.68🔥 LONG (unwinding)Δwow -9.8pp↓ fading long
⚡ LM (active) +32.2%z52 +1.73🔥 LONG (fresh)Δwow +7.8pp↑ building long
━━━━━ Prediction markets ━━━━━
📈 Polymarket57 contractsextremity 40%Δ24h n/a
📈 PM movers — no contracts moving in last 36h

Per-pair (positioning view)

where the pair sits given base vs quote consensus — sorted by extremity · click → currency drill-down
MARKET IS STRONG LONG USDMXN→ steady3/5 LONG
📰 News: +0.60 (strong long)
🏦 Research: no bank coverage
💬 Rumours: +0.19 (moderate long)
📊 AM (real $): short 18% · Δwow +9.8pp
⚡ LM (active): short 32% · Δwow -7.8pp
🔮 Forecast: long (1 forecast)
MARKET IS STRONG SHORT AUDUSD▽ fadingMIXED 3L/3S
📰 News: -0.52 (strong short)
🏦 Research: -0.21 (moderate short)
💬 Rumours: +0.18 (moderate long)
📊 AM (real $): long 16%
⚡ LM (active): long 20% · Δwow +3.1pp
🔮 Forecast: short (3 forecasts) · target 0.7100
MARKET IS STRONG LONG USDZAR△ fading4/6 LONG
📰 News: +0.46 (strong long)
🏦 Research: +0.60 (strong long)
💬 Rumours: +0.22 (moderate long)
📊 AM (real $): short 34% · Δwow +6.4pp
⚡ LM (active): short 18%
🔮 Forecast: long (1 forecast) · target 18.4000
MARKET IS MODERATE SHORT NZDUSD▽ fading4/5 SHORT
📰 News: -0.22 (moderate short)
🏦 Research: no bank coverage
💬 Rumours: -0.06 (slight short)
📊 AM (real $): short 50%
⚡ LM (active): short 23% · Δwow -2.5pp
🔮 Forecast: long (2 forecasts) · target 0.6000
MARKET IS MODERATE LONG USDSEK→ steady2/3 LONG
📰 News: +0.19 (moderate long)
🏦 Research: +0.35 (strong long)
💬 Rumours: -0.13 (slight short)
📊 AM (real $): no CFTC contract
⚡ LM (active): no LM contract
🔮 Forecast: no recent forecasts
MARKET IS MODERATE LONG USDCAD▲ building3/5 LONG
📰 News: +0.19 (moderate long)
🏦 Research: -0.17 (moderate short)
💬 Rumours: no rumours
📊 AM (real $): short 12% · Δwow -5.8pp
⚡ LM (active): long 20% · Δwow -1.8pp
🔮 Forecast: long (3 forecasts) · target 1.3900
MARKET IS MODERATE SHORT EURUSD→ steady4/6 SHORT
📰 News: -0.19 (moderate short)
🏦 Research: -0.16 (moderate short)
💬 Rumours: -0.16 (moderate short)
📊 AM (real $): long 35% · Δwow -1.2pp
⚡ LM (active): long 2%
🔮 Forecast: short (9 forecasts) · target 1.1570
MARKET IS SLIGHT LONG USDCHF→ steady5/6 LONG
📰 News: +0.13 (slight long)
🏦 Research: +0.41 (strong long)
💬 Rumours: -0.55 (strong short)
📊 AM (real $): long 40%
⚡ LM (active): long 7% · Δwow +1.6pp
🔮 Forecast: long (3 forecasts) · target 0.7839
MARKET IS SLIGHT LONG USDPLN↗ turning bullish2/3 LONG
📰 News: +0.12 (slight long)
🏦 Research: +0.49 (strong long)
💬 Rumours: -0.23 (moderate short)
📊 AM (real $): no CFTC contract
⚡ LM (active): no LM contract
🔮 Forecast: no recent forecasts
MARKET IS SLIGHT SHORT GBPUSD→ steady2/3 SHORT
📰 News: -0.11 (slight short)
🏦 Research: no bank coverage
💬 Rumours: no rumours
📊 AM (real $): short 37% · Δwow -1.7pp
⚡ LM (active): long 9% · Δwow -1.5pp
🔮 Forecast: mixed (6 forecasts) · target 1.3515
MARKET IS SLIGHT SHORT USDJPY→ steady3/5 LONG
📰 News: -0.06 (slight short)
🏦 Research: no bank coverage
💬 Rumours: -0.32 (strong short)
📊 AM (real $): long 3% · Δwow -4.2pp
⚡ LM (active): long 15% · Δwow -5.4pp
🔮 Forecast: long (4 forecasts) · target 160.9750
MARKET IS FLAT USDNOK→ steadyMIXED 1L/1S
📰 News: -0.01 (flat)
🏦 Research: +0.07 (slight long)
💬 Rumours: -0.25 (moderate short)
📊 AM (real $): no CFTC contract
⚡ LM (active): no LM contract
🔮 Forecast: no recent forecasts

Reading the gauge

Per-currency header: overall posterior across News + Research (Tier 1+2 only) · sign = direction · arrow + 24h delta = momentum
Sub-channels (text): 📰 News (story_log Tier 1+2 only) · 🏦 Research (bank-research RSS only) · 💬 Rumours (Tier 3 only) — three disjoint Bayesian posteriors
CME positioning: 📊 AM = Asset Manager (real-money, structural) · ⚡ LM = Lev Money (active/tactical hedge funds) · 🔥 = |z52| ≥ 1.5 (statistically extreme vs trailing 52w)
Sparkline: trailing ~26 weeks of net %; dashed line = zero (long/short flip); dot = current week; line color matches current direction
52w-range qualifier: (fresh) = position aligned with z52 direction (pressing the trade) · (unwinding) = z52 sign opposite to position (covering / paring back) · (mid-range) = |z52| < 1
Text-channel arrows: ▲ building bullish · ▼ building bearish · △/▽ fading · ↗/↘ turning · → steady
CME Δwow arrow: ↑ building (Δwow same sign as net %) · ↓ fading (Δwow opposite) · → steady (|Δwow| < 1pp) · ↗/↘ turning (currently flat, starting to move)
Strength bands: SLIGHTLY (|p|=0.15-0.30), MODERATELY (0.30-0.65), STRONGLY (≥0.30) · NEUTRAL inside ±0.05
Change tag: "building" = consensus reinforcing in last 24h · "fading" = weakening · "turning" = crossing through neutral
Per-pair alignment: N/M LONG = N of M channels (News, Research, Rumours, AM, LM, Forecast) point long; trader's eye on cross-channel agreement
PM movers: top contracts moving on each currency in last 36h. extending high = was > 50%, going higher (conviction reinforcing) · fading high = was high, slipping · off the floor = low base, rising (early conviction shift) · deepening low = low, going lower · flipping = crossing 50% threshold. Direction encodes the move pattern — interpret the FX direction yourself given the contract's content.